Salocin

Hamas the Victors

What interesting times we live in.

It's interesting to note that, according to the democratic processes favoured by most of the western nations, Hamas is now the official, democratically elected representative party of the Palestinian people. As noted by the BBC, this poses the western countries a bit of a dilemma. Do you recognise them, despite having labelled them a terrorist organisation and refused to deal with them in the past? Or do you refuse to recognise them, thus painting yourself in all the bright colours of a hypocrite after having pushed so hard for elections in the Middle East?

The main thrust of commentary around this issue seems to search for positive angles on the question, and it's fair to say that there are a number of benefits that come from having Hamas represent the Palestinian people, not least the pressure this naturally creates for the organisation to alter its behaviour, become more acceptable as a negotiating partner, and capitalise on its position as legitimate representative of Palestinian interests. A return to a bombing campaign can only undermine their newfound potential for legitimacy.

It is even possible to take the party's intransigent stance to date and look at that as a contributing factor to the feasability of a solution, as commented in Haaretz on January 31st :

While I recognize the potentially explosive situation with Hamas, I humbly submit that Hamas' victory may very well prove to be beneficial to all concerned parties. It is common wisdom that a peace deal acceptable to Likud is acceptable to all in the US and Israel. Similarly, a peace deal acceptable to Hamas will be acceptable to all in the Arab and Muslim world
-- Muqtedar Khan, Haaretz, Jan 31 2006

Another hidden facet of this election, which provides both comfort and a cause for concern, is that Hamas do not appear to have as clear a majority as at first appears. This is because Palestinians are unaware of the failings of democracy, and the strategies that must be invoked in order to ensure an adequate deployment of one's votes. The Israel-Palestine Center for Research and Information published the following on their news page on January 31st 2006.

In the final outcome of the Palestinian elections the Hamas party took 74 seats of the 132 available seats. This equals 56%. The division of the seats between the national lists and the district lists were 29 from the national list and 45 in the district lists (74 seats in total).
 
The hidden statistics paint a very different figure. On the national list the Hamas received 43.94% of the vote meaning that 56.06% of the Palestinian voters did not vote for the Hamas on the national list.
 
On the district lists Hamas gained 68.18% of the seats with non-Hamas candidates taking on 31.82% of the seats. But in reality, in the districts Hamas candidates received only 36.45% of the votes while non-Hamas candidates received 63.54% of the votes.
 
In reality, a clear majority of Palestinians voted against the Hamas. What happened is that Hamas presented a unified list in each district while Fatah and others had a multiplicity of candidates which caused great divisions. While this explanation does not alter the results of the elections, it is somewhat more comforting to recognize that the voice of the Palestinian electorate did not give a majority of support to Hamas.

This is a concern because it means that Palestinians are now represented by an organisation that, as a group, they did not pick. On the other hand, it's a relief to know that Hamas does not have the popular vote in Palestine (i.e. a majority of Palestinians do not think it is appropriate for an organisation that represents the use of violence to further its aims to run the country). Western countries should not be too quick to cast aspersions on the quality of the Hamas victory, however, as this form of democratic strategising is far more common and far more finely tuned in our countries than in theirs (see, for example, gerrymandering). A rejection of Hamas as a legitimate representative of the Palestinian people would remain extremely hypocritical.

As is almost always the case in the Israel-Palestine conflict, the prognosticators are falling all over themselves to predict what will happen next. The reality is that this is no mathematical equation, and few people - either observing the problem or deep in the heart of it - have sufficient knowledge and insight to forecast the next moves on this blood-stained chessboard.

For my part, as long as the news is concerned with whether Hamas can change, and isn't about another bomb in Israel or the latest Palestinian home bulldozed, then I am grateful for the respite, and I am sure that the people in the region are too.

Update 03.02.2006 - Found a link to Scott Adams's insight - it's hard to do things that make your neighbour want to kill you when you first have to sit in a highly-visible, easily-targeted public building in a well-publicised location and vote on it.

Posted by nlvp at February 2, 2006 06:12 PM